The Boko Haram Briefing: How IPI's Nigeria Intelligence Reached Epstein

On November 5, 2013, IPI researcher Nasra Hassan sent an article from Nigeria's Vanguard newspaper to four colleagues: Rod-Larsen, Andrea Pfanzelter, Walter Kemp, and Mark Shaw. The subject line was "Bill Gates should not visit Nigeria." The article reported that a northern Nigerian coalition, the Arewa Coalition for Save The Child Initiative, had petitioned President Goodluck Jonathan to cancel Gates's planned visit. Ten polio workers had been shot dead in Kano earlier that year. Three more were killed in Borno. Boko Haram claimed both attacks. The coalition warned that "the intended publicity and fanfare that would be accorded the visit of Gates will endanger the lives of more polio workers in the North." Epstein forwarded the article from his personal Gmail that same day (EFTA01755599-0, vol00009-efta00974820-pdf-0).

Six weeks later, IPI's Mark Shaw produced a two-page Nigeria intelligence brief. He sent it to Pfanzelter on December 16, 2013, with a note: "here is the 2 pager of what we are hearing at multiple levels, will have lots more detail in January but this is a good summary I hope." Pfanzelter forwarded it to Rod-Larsen on December 18. Rod-Larsen forwarded it to Epstein on January 13, 2014, with the attachment labeled "Polio Prelim Findings doc." The chain took four weeks. By April, Michael Sarnitz at IPI had prepared final versions of both the Nigeria and Somalia barrier reports for submission to the Gates Foundation (EFTA01947451-2, EFTA01947451-1, EFTA01942482-0, vol00009-efta00990564-pdf-0).

The most detailed document came in June 2014. Rod-Larsen forwarded Epstein a four-section IPI analysis titled "Talking Points Polio Nigeria." It opened with a correction: the kidnapping of the Chibok girls had made Boko Haram look like a new threat, but "this is a major misinterpretation." The group had been active for years. "2-300 people can be killed and it barely warrants a mention in the international press." The briefing called the conflict "a simmering civil war" and warned that the government's militarized crackdown was making Boko Haram "more provocative and flamboyant rather than less so." It predicted violence in northern Nigeria would "increase significantly" and that access to the north was "already almost impossible." On the polio campaign specifically, it warned that Gates-funded cash had "allowed local governments to misappropriate funds" and was "broadly seen to have fuelled a corrupt regime." It recommended against using the military to deliver vaccines (vol00009-efta00717107-pdf-0).

The Gates Foundation was paying for this work. In July 2013, IPI's Melissa Covelli West had asked Rod-Larsen to confirm the grant scope: "With 'area' you mean: (1) Pakistan and Afganistan, (2) Nigeria and (3) Somalia ? One million for each pr year over five years? So it will sum up to 15 mill over five years." The same month, Andrea Pfanzelter sent Epstein a grant template from the Foundation's Executive Office. Amy Carter, Deputy Director of Family Interest Grants, had scheduled an August 5 call to discuss the proposal. The Foundation wanted IPI to provide "research, analysis and insights of the political environment" in conflict zones and to help "identify potential influencers/high-level contacts." All of this intelligence, funded by the Gates Foundation, routed through Rod-Larsen, ended up in Epstein's inbox (vol00009-efta00678502-pdf-5, vol00009-efta00969185-pdf-3).

The archive does not show Epstein acting on the Nigeria briefings or forwarding them to anyone else. What it documents is the pipeline: IPI field researcher to Vienna office to IPI president to convicted sex offender, eight emails over eight months. The June 2014 talking points predicted that violence in northern Nigeria would increase significantly. By the end of that year, Boko Haram had seized Baga, killing an estimated 2,000 civilians.